Respuesta :
Answer:
A seller and installer of spas wants to forecast the requirement for January. February and March next year.
The equation to estimate the trend component of the monthly demand is:
[tex]F_{t} = 90 + 6t[/tex]
t = 0 in June of last year.
The seasonal relatives are 1.07 for January, 0.88 for February and 0.96 for March.
If t = 0 in June last year, the value of t will be 19, 20 and 21 for next year January, February and March respectively.
Therefore using this we get the trend forecasts for:
January = [tex]F_{19} = 90 + 6 * 19 = 204[/tex]
February = [tex]F_{20} = 90 + 6 * 20 = 210[/tex]
March = [tex]F_{21} = 90 + 6 * 21 = 216[/tex]
The demands corrected for seasonal relatives would be::
January = 204 x 1.07 = 218.28 or 218 spas
February = 210 x 0.88 = 184.8 or 185 spas
March = 216 x 0.96 = 207.36 or 207 spas
Answer:
January = 204 x 1.07 = 218.28
February= 210 x 0.88 = 184.8
March= 216 x 0.96 = 207.36
Explanation:
The question is to help the Manager of as store to predict sales for 3 months (January, February and March) the next year based on given estimates.
First, What is the equation for estimating the monthly demand
= Ft = 90 + 6t,
where t = 0 in June of last year
Second, what is the seasonal relatives for the three months:
January = 1.07
February = 0.88
March = 0.96
Since, t = 0, June of last year, then we calculate t for January, February, March of next yer
June to December = 6 months + 12 Months ( January to December of current year ) = 18 Months
This means that t in January = 19, February = 20 and March = 21
Finally, Calculate the trend analysis as follows
January = F19 = 90 + 6 (19) = 204
February= F20 = 90 + 6 (20) = 210
March= F21 = 90 + 6 (21) = 216
The seasonal relatives for corrected demands will be:
January = 204 x 1.07 = 218.28
February= 210 x 0.88 = 184.8
March= 216 x 0.96 = 207.36
